Expected gain from raising+$353
Over 12 months, averaged over the chance the tenant stays or leaves Example calculationRaising paysAt these inputs, raising the rent by $75 a month pays: about $353 more over 12 months on average. It stops paying if the extra chance the tenant leaves goes above 16.7 percentage points (you entered 5).
Break-even extra chance of leaving16.7 points
Total chance of leaving 60.7% Average rent per month if you raise$1,751
Hold: $1,722 a month Raising catches up inMonth 4
When the running total passes holding Increase as share of rent4.2%
$75 on $1,800 Two outcomes, side by side
The average hides the risk, so here is each outcome on its own.
Rent kept over the months compared, after empty months and move-out cost| Outcome | Hold the rent | Raise the rent |
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Bad luck test
There is no price growth in this question, so the stress test doubles the two things that go wrong: the extra chance of leaving and the empty months.
With the extra chance doubled to 10 points and the empty months doubled to 2, raising still pays by about $14 over 12 months, but it is close.
Expected gain in the bad case+$14
Over 12 months Break-even extra chance in the bad case10.3 points
Compare with the doubled chance above Does the answer change?No
Catches up in month 12 Expected gain from raising, month by month
The running total if you raise, minus the running total if you hold. Below zero, holding is ahead.
View the monthly table
Running totals by month, in dollars| Month | Hold, expected | Raise, expected | Raise minus hold | If tenant stays, hold | If tenant stays, raise | If tenant leaves, either |
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What changes the answer most
Each input moved one plain step down and up, with the others held. These two swing the gain the most.
Size of the increase$306 swing
Gain is +$200 at $50 and +$506 at $100 Extra chance they leave because of the raise$303 swing
Gain is +$504 at 0 points and +$202 at 10 points Check local rules before you send a notice
Some places limit how much rent can go up or require advance notice. Check your local rules before you raise.
This page does not say what you are allowed to charge or how much notice you must give. Rules differ by place and by unit, so confirm them before you send a notice. For New York:
How this estimates
This is a one-time choice made at a lease renewal, so it is worked out month by month over the window you pick. It does not use interest or a discount rate, and it does not model price growth.
- If the tenant stays: rent over the window is the rent times the months, at the old rent if you hold and at the new rent if you raise.
- If the tenant leaves: the unit is empty for the empty months, the next tenant pays the new-tenant rent for the rest of the window, and you pay the move-out cost once. This is the same whether or not you raised.
- Expected total: each outcome is weighted by its chance. Holding uses the chance they leave anyway. Raising adds the extra chance, which is capped so the total never goes above 100%.
- Gain: the expected total if you raise minus the expected total if you hold. It equals the extra rent from tenants who stay, minus the extra chance of leaving times the gap between staying at the new rent and leaving.
- Break-even extra chance: the extra chance of leaving at which the gain is zero. If leaving costs you no more than staying at the new rent, raising pays at any chance.
- Catch-up month: the first month where the running total for raising is at or above the running total for holding.
- Bad luck test: the same math with the extra chance and the empty months both doubled.
- What changes the answer most: each input moves by a plain step (increase $25, new-tenant rent $100, empty months 1, move-out cost $500, chance of leaving anyway 10 points, extra chance 5 points), kept inside its allowed range.
Longer windows favor raising, because the extra rent keeps adding up while a move-out is paid once. Money is rounded only when shown.
A planning estimate from your inputs and the assumptions shown. It is not legal, tax or financial advice. Real tenants, local rules and markets differ, and nothing here promises a result.
Benchmark sources and dates
Starting assumptions are example benchmarks, not binding quotes. Change any input to match your own bills or offers.
| Assumption / Input | Starting value | Source | Checked |
|---|
| Rent now | $1,800 a month | Typical, edit this. Context only: Apartment List, "Which U.S. Metro Areas Are Landlord's Markets? (2026)" | 2026-10-17 |
| Increase you are weighing | $75 a month | Typical, edit this. The $50 to $100 example comes from the question; the Apartments.com guide was unreachable (HTTP 403) and was not read | 2026-10-17 |
| Rent a new tenant would pay | $1,875 a month | Typical, edit this. Set equal to the rent now plus the increase. Context: Apartment List | 2026-10-17 |
| Months to compare | 12 months | Typical, edit this. A round lease length. Context only: Apartment List | 2026-10-17 |
| Empty months if the tenant leaves | 1 month | Apartment List, national median time on market 31.7 days in August 2026 (about 1.04 months), | 2026-10-17 |
| Context for empty months: US rental vacancy | 7.3% in Q2 2026 (7.0% a year earlier), not a default | U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey press release of 2026-07-28 | 2026-10-17 |
| Context for empty months: New York City | 1.4% net rental vacancy in 2023, not a default | NYC Housing Preservation and Development, 2023 Housing and Vacancy Survey initial findings | 2026-10-17 |
| Cash cost of a move-out | $1,150 one time | Typical, edit this. Middle of light-turn ranges (cleaning 275 + paint 400 + minor repairs 300 + carpet cleaning 175) from a vendor blog, | 2026-10-17 |
| Chance the tenant leaves anyway | 44% | RealPage lease data as reported by LeaseLock, | 2026-10-17 |
| Extra chance they leave because of the increase | 5 points | Typical, edit this. No study found that splits renewals by increase size. Searches on 2026-10-17 only returned overall renewal rates, e.g. | 2026-10-17 |
| Local rent rules (links only) | No number used | NY Homes and Community Renewal, Good Cause Eviction and NYC Rent Guidelines Board | 2026-10-17 |