At these inputs, the blower pays back its $1,627 cost in about 4.1 seasons, or about 40.6 storms, and is about $2,708 ahead after 10 seasons.
It needs about 5.0 storms a winter to come out ahead over 10 seasons. You entered 9.9.
How many storms does it take?
Rochester: about 9.9 days a winter with at least 3 inches of new snow (NOAA 1991-2020 average).
At Rochester, about 3.9 days a winter bring 5 inches or more and about 0.8 bring 10 inches or more. This blower handles up to about 12 inches.
A guide, not a forecast. This winter can be a lot busier or milder: WROC reports Rochester has about 10 storms of 3 inches in a typical winter, 15 in the busiest (2017 to 2018) and 2 in the mildest (2022 to 2023). A plow goes by what is on the ground when the truck rolls, NOAA by the observer's daily total, and lake-effect bands vary within a few miles. A storm over two days can count twice. The full table is under "How this estimates".
Monthly cash flow
Averaged over the year; in real life the cost falls in winter. The machine's price is not in these rows.
| Season | Saved each month, on average | Saved in the season |
|---|---|---|
| Season 1 | $31.51 | $378 |
| Season 10 | $41.12 | $493 |
If prices stay flat
If prices stay flat, the blower pays back in about 4.3 seasons and ends about $2,155 ahead after 10 seasons.
| Result | Your price rises | Flat prices |
|---|---|---|
| Net after 10 seasons | +$2,708 | +$2,155 |
| Seasons to pay back | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Storms to pay back | 40.6 | 42.6 |
| Break-even storms a winter | 5.0 storms | 5.4 storms |
Running total, season by season
Money ahead of the service after each season, in a typical winter, a mild one (half the storms) and a busy one (half as many again). Above the zero line the blower is ahead. Resale is not drawn.
Season-by-season table
| Season | Typical winter | Mild winter | Busy winter |
|---|
What different winters do
The same inputs at different storm counts. Plus means the blower is ahead; a tie goes to the service.
| Storms a winter | Service, first winter | Blower, first winter | Service, total | Blower, total | Net | Seasons to pay back | Cheaper |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | $0 | $100 | $0 | $2,773 | -$2,773 | Never | Service |
| 2 | $100 | $103 | $1,146 | $2,812 | -$1,666 | Not in 10 | Service |
| 5 | $250 | $109 | $2,866 | $2,871 | -$5 | Not in 10 | Service |
| 9.9 (yours) | $495 | $117 | $5,675 | $2,966 | +$2,708 | 4.1 | Blower |
| 10 | $500 | $117 | $5,732 | $2,968 | +$2,764 | 4.1 | Blower |
| 15 | $750 | $126 | $8,598 | $3,066 | +$5,532 | 2.5 | Blower |
| 20 | $1,000 | $134 | $11,464 | $3,163 | +$8,301 | 1.9 | Blower |
| 25 | $1,250 | $143 | $14,330 | $3,261 | +$11,069 | 1.5 | Blower |
What changes the answer most
At these inputs, the visit price and the number of storms move the answer most. A 25% change in the visit price ($12.50) moves the net result by about $1,419.
| Input | Setting | Net result | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visit price, 25% lower | $37.50 | +$1,290 | -$1,419 |
| Visit price, 25% higher | $62.50 | +$4,127 | +$1,419 |
| Number of storms, 25% lower | 7.4 storms | +$1,338 | -$1,370 |
| Number of storms, 25% higher | 12.4 storms | +$4,079 | +$1,370 |
Which blower, and a word on health
Consumer Reports: single-stage gas suits a level, paved driveway and up to about 9 inches of snow. Two-stage suits a long, wide driveway or gravel. Three-stage is for 18 inches or more of wet, heavy snow. Most single-stage battery models top out near 6 inches. The whole category runs from about $200 to over $3,000 (page updated 2026-03-09).
This page cannot say who should clear snow. The American Heart Association says people with heart disease or risk factors should get someone else to do it (AHA, 2026-02-05).
How this estimates
A "storm" is a day with at least the trigger depth of new snow, from the NOAA table below or your own number. The blower costs its price plus sales tax up front, then each winter upkeep, storage and, for each storm you clear yourself, fuel plus your time at the hourly value you entered. A per-visit service bills storms times the visit price. A contract bills its price, plus the extra-visit price for each storm above the cap. Backup visits are billed at the visit price and the blower clears the rest.
Service prices grow by the service price rise each season and blower costs by the blower cost rise. A new machine is bought in the season after each full life, at today's price grown by the blower cost rise. Resale is a share of the last machine's price. There is no loan, discount rate or tax effect. Seasons to pay back is when the running total first reaches zero; storms to pay back is that times the storms a winter. The break-even storm count comes from trying every count from 0 to 100 in steps of 0.1. Cash saved per hour is the cash gain over your hours with the blower, before tax.
Left out: hand shoveling, a snow pusher, a heated driveway, roof snow, a neighbor who plows, noise, insurance, injury risk and salt, except what you add to the fuel box. Deep storms cost more per visit, and a single-stage blower is rated to about 9 inches. A per-inch bill is not modeled: enter your average visit.
NOAA snow days by station, 1991-2020
Average days a winter with snowfall of at least each depth (NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, checked 2026-10-17). Season snow is in inches. Watertown, Oswego and Lake Placid are cooperative (volunteer-observer) stations, not airports, and Lake Placid's season total is provisional (21 years of data). The airport stations at Watertown and Saranac Lake have no snowfall columns. Choose the nearest station or type your own count.
| Station (NOAA id) | Season snow (in) | 1 in or more | 2 in or more | 3 in or more | 4 in or more | 5 in or more | 10 in or more |
|---|
Sources and date checked
Starting numbers were checked on 2026-10-17. Prices and plow terms vary by town. Plow prices come from one TV station's 2024 report and contractors' own marketing guides, which are market talk, not a price list. The table below lists each source and the pages that could not be opened.
Not advice. This is a planning estimate at the inputs shown, not financial, medical or safety advice. Prices, plow terms and snowfall differ by town and by winter. Get a written quote from your service before you decide.
Benchmark sources and dates
Starting assumptions are example benchmarks, not binding quotes. Change any input to match your own bills or offers.
| Assumption / Input | Starting value | Source | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storms a winter, by station and trigger | Rochester at 3 inches: 9.9 days. Eight stations, opened and checked. | NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 Climate Normals | 2026-10-17 |
| Real winters, and trigger depth | Rochester: 10 typical, 15 most, 2 fewest storms of 3 inches. Trigger 3 inches (typical, edit this). | WROC 2024; Redefine; Renpro | 2026-10-17 |
| Plow prices | $50 a visit, $500 a season (typical, edit this) | WROC 2024 and Redefine (links above); Lawnlove; Renpro and Housecall Pro | 2026-10-17 |
| Contract cap, extra visit | No cap; extra visit $50 (typical, edit this). No source for a typical cap. | Redefine; KP Landscaping | 2026-10-17 |
| Driveway presets, minutes a storm | $40/$450/15 min, $50/$500/30, $60/$600/45, $100/$1,200/75 (typical, edit this) | Our round steps from the sources above | 2026-10-17 |
| Blower price | Two-stage gas $1,499, single-stage gas $549, battery $749 (list prices) | Toro 826 OAE; Toro 518 ZR; Toro e21 60V | 2026-10-17 |
| Depth a blower handles, price range | Single-stage gas 9 inches, battery 6, two-stage 12 (a note only). Category $200 to $3,000 and up. | Consumer Reports buying guide, updated 2026-03-09; Toro pages | 2026-10-17 |
| Upkeep, blower life | Upkeep $100, $75, $25 a season; life 10 seasons gas, 8 battery (typical, edit this) | Consumer Reports 2014 | 2026-10-17 |
| Fuel or charging a storm | $1.70 two-stage at 30 min, $0.38 at 15, $2.55 at 45, $4.24 at 75; battery $0.10 (typical, edit this) | EIA gasoline and EIA electricity, copied from shared/state-defaults.json (2026-10-08) | 2026-10-17 |
| Sales tax | 8.54% New York average (use your county's rate) | Tax Foundation 2026, copied from shared/state-defaults.json | 2026-10-17 |
| Service and blower cost rises | 3% a year each (typical, edit this) | BLS CPI, September 2026 | 2026-10-17 |
| Resale, time, seasons, backup visits | Resale 0% (no source), time $0 an hour, 10 seasons, 2 backup visits (our round choices) | None. Our own choices. | 2026-10-17 |
| Health line | One line and a link, no advice. Opened. | American Heart Association, 2026-02-05 | 2026-10-17 |
| Pages that could not be opened | No number here comes from them. Not verified: a primary NOAA statement on plow contractors, a Consumer Reports price by type, a battery blower's life, gallons a storm, resale value, a typical visit cap. | Angi, Home Depot, Lowe's, Ace Hardware, HomeAdvisor's cost page, Toro and EGO listings, three dealer or engine sites | 2026-10-17 |