Payback period
-- years
At these inputs
Example calculation
Calculating...
Enter your fuel use on the left to see if a heat pump pays for itself.
Year 1 savings
--
-- / month
Net upfront cost
--
After rebates & avoided cost
Cumulative net gain
--
Total cash flow
Net present value
--
Discounted return
Break-even electricity
--
Maximum electricity price to save
Break-even fuel price
--
Minimum fuel price to save
Monthly Cash Flow Impact
Year 1 monthly impact
--
Net monthly difference on energy and loan payments.
Last year monthly impact
--
Reflecting price escalation over the horizon.
Stress Tests & Sensitivities
Flat-Price Sensitivity (0% Escalation):
If fuel and electricity prices do not rise at all, payback is --.
Real-World Winter Performance (-15% COP):
If severe winter cold reduces seasonal COP by 15%, year-1 savings are --.
What Changes the Answer Most:
The price gap between your heating fuel and electricity, followed by heat pump seasonal COP, dominates your payback timeline.
Cumulative cash flow over time
Cumulative net cash
How this calculation works
This calculator compares the cost of delivering heat with your current equipment against a cold-climate air-source heat pump:
- Heat delivered (BTU): We calculate your home's thermal heat delivery as
annual fuel use × fuel energy content × AFUE. Oil provides ~138,500 BTU/gal, propane ~91,500 BTU/gal, natural gas ~100,000 BTU/therm, and electricity 3,412 BTU/kWh.
- Heat pump consumption: Electricity needed is
heat delivered × coverage ÷ (3,412 × COP). A COP of 3.0 means 3 units of heat are transferred into your home for every 1 unit of electrical energy consumed.
- Annual savings: Baseline fuel expense minus the heat pump's electricity expense and any remaining backup fuel, adjusted for cooling benefits and maintenance differences.
- Net upfront cost: Full installation cost minus incentives, and minus avoided boiler replacement cost if your existing heating system was at end-of-life.
- Break-even points: The exact electricity price where heat pump operating costs match fuel costs, and the minimum fuel price needed to break even.
Sources and date checked
All benchmark figures were verified on 2026-10-12 from official energy and regulatory sources:
- Heating oil price ($3.80/gal): U.S. EIA Heating Oil and Propane Update. NY 2025–2026 heating season average was $4.03/gal; baseline $3.80 reflects typical upstate delivery.
- Propane price ($3.12/gal): NYSERDA Home Heating Propane Dashboard statewide average.
- Natural gas price ($1.60/therm): U.S. EIA Natural Gas Monthly (~$16.01/Mcf winter rate).
- Electricity rate ($0.28/kWh): U.S. EIA Electric Power Monthly NY residential average (24.4¢ to 29.9¢/kWh).
- Efficiencies (AFUE 83%, COP 3.0): U.S. Department of Energy / Energy Star boiler standards and NEEP Cold-Climate Air-Source Heat Pump product listings.
- Installed costs ($18,000 HP, $8,500 boiler): NYSERDA Clean Heat market studies and contractor surveys.
- Incentives: Federal 25C tax credit expired after 2025-12-31; NYS Clean Heat utility rebates range from $1,000 to $8,000+ depending on service territory.
Disclaimer: A planning estimate based on your inputs and the assumptions shown. Actual costs and eligibility may differ. Does not constitute professional HVAC design (Manual J), tax, legal, or investment advice. Always obtain quotes from licensed contractors before making equipment decisions.